BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is betting that U.S. politics, not crypto fundamentals, will drive the next major leg higher for Bitcoin (BTC)—arguing that a Republican (“Team Red” as he calls them) win in 2028 all but guarantees aggressive money printing, so long as gasoline prices stay in check.
- Hayes lays out what he calls the “10% rule.”
- He links rising fuel prices to electoral losses.
- The conclusion: Trump’s political incentives point toward looser fiscal and monetary policy—conditions Hayes says are historically bullish for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Hayes’ thesis, detailed in a blog post, centers on U.S. gasoline prices. If the national average price of gas rises more than 10% in the three months before an election compared with January levels, control of one or more branches of government typically flips, he argues.
To avoid that outcome in 2028, Hayes says Trump must “run the economy hot” without allowing fuel prices to spike.
There are two elections that concern US President Trump: the November mid-term elections, and the 2028 presidential election. While he himself is not up for re-election in 2026 and cannot run for a third presidential term in 2028, the loyalty and obedience of his phalanx of political supporters depends on their chances of re-election. All the defections from the MAGA tattered tent are because of souring views on future electability should they continue to do what Trump demands. What can Trump do to ensure that the median voter, who hasn’t yet decided whether they are Team Blue Democrats or Team Red Republicans, will show up in November 2026 and 2028 and vote the “right way”?
Policymakers have a narrow path
Legislators must expand credit and nominal GDP while keeping oil prices subdued, Hayes says. If oil rises too quickly, it risks pushing Treasury yields higher, increasing bond market volatility, and forcing politicians to rein in stimulus—something Hayes believes Trump is unwilling to do.
“The base case is oil prices remain subsided if not outright fall and Trump and Buffalo Bill Bessent print money like it’s 2020. This is because the market will initially believe US control of Venezuelan oil will cause a massive increase in the daily amount of pumped crude oil,” Hayes wrote.
Whether that supply materializes is secondary, he said, to the political imperative to keep inflation-sensitive voters calm.
Hayes pointed to the 10-year Treasury yield and the MOVE Index, a measure of bond market volatility, as key signals. When yields approach 5% and volatility spikes, leveraged financial markets tend to unravel, forcing policymakers to retreat. He cited last year’s tariff scare—when bond volatility surged and markets sold off—as an example of how quickly political pressure can reverse policy.
Bitcoin stands apart
Against that backdrop, Hayes argues Bitcoin stands apart from traditional assets. Because all bitcoin miners face the same energy price shifts simultaneously, he says oil prices matter less directly to Bitcoin than to fiat markets. Instead, Bitcoin’s price responds primarily to liquidity expansion and currency debasement.
“Nothing stops this train,” Hayes wrote, echoing analyst Lyn Alden, as he described a cycle in which deficit spending, Treasury issuance, and central bank bond buying reinforce each other. As dollar supply grows, he expects Bitcoin—and select cryptocurrencies—to rise sharply.
Hayes also outlined his 2026 trading strategy, saying his firm Maelstrom is running near-maximum risk exposure with minimal stablecoin holdings. While continuing to accumulate BTC, he plans to rotate capital into privacy-focused tokens and decentralized finance plays, which he believes will outperform if credit expansion continues.
The bottom line, according to Hayes, is that political incentives favor stimulus over restraint, especially in an election cycle. For investors, he says, that makes the macro case straightforward—stay constructive on risk assets, and stay long Bitcoin.
