Insights

Lumber to gold ratio breaks down, suggesting a risk-off environment

exchange68September 13, 2024

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Quick Take

So far, 2023 has been a good year for Bitcoin and risk assets, with Bitcoin up 71%, Nvidia up 92%, and Meta up 68%.
The S&P 500 is up 7% while the Nasdaq is up 20%
However, the lumber-to-gold ratio indicates a risk-off environment, and the stock market has always followed a crash.

Highlighted are the areas where the lumber-to-gold ratio collapsed, and subsequently, the S&P 500 went down.

1987 Crash
1990 Bear Market
2000 Tech Bubble
2008 Lehman Crash
2011 Summer Crash
2018 4Q Correction
2020 Covid Crash

As Bitcoin is somewhat correlated to the US stock market this could mean further headwinds for Bitcoin.

Lumber to Gold Ratio: (Source: Trading View)

Analyst

James Van Straten

Former Lead Analyst at CryptoSlate

James fervently appreciates data, technology, and trend-spotting. As a tech and liberty maximalist, he hails Bitcoin as the 21st century’s paramount invention.

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