Quick Take
Kamala Harris has surged ahead in Polymarket’s betting odds for the upcoming US Presidential election, marking a significant shift in the race. As of Aug. 12, Harris holds a 52% chance of winning, overtaking Donald Trump for the second time. This rise is particularly striking given that she had just a 1% chance of victory as recently as June 27 prior to Biden dropping out. Harris first reached the 50% mark on Aug. 10, and her momentum continued with the recent announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate on Aug. 6.
Polymarket, a popular prediction market, has seen a total of $574 million bet on the election outcome, highlighting the intense interest and speculation surrounding this year’s contest.
As Donald Trump became associated with Bitcoin, often dubbed the ‘Bitcoin candidate,’ his odds of winning the election surged to a peak of 72% on July 16. This coincided with Bitcoin’s rally, which reached $70,000 by July 29 during the Bitcoin Nashville conference. However, both Trump’s odds and Bitcoin’s price have since experienced a decline. However, the correlation has recently weakened. Trump has also fallen behind on non-crypto betting sites and prediction markets.
In a related development, Elon Musk has confirmed on X (formerly Twitter) that he will conduct a live interview with Donald Trump at 8 P.M. ET on Aug. 12, further intensifying the focus on the candidates as the election approaches.
James Van Straten
James fervently appreciates data, technology, and trend-spotting. As a tech and liberty maximalist, he hails Bitcoin as the 21st century’s paramount invention.
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