Insights

GBTC discount narrows during SEC hearing, yield curve inversion deepens; 60% probability for 50bps hike

exchange68September 13, 2024

0 0 1 minute read

Quick Take

Result of Powell Speaking

The US 10-year minus 02 years has reached -100 bps inversion.
The forward growth outlook is a full percentage point lower than the expected policy rate.
Levels of policy error not achieved since February 1980.
Inversion points to a recession, but a larger inversion doesn’t not mean a faster or deeper recession.
While the terminal rate is now forecasted at 5.6% for October 2023 and a 60% probability of a 50bps rate hike during the March FOMC meeting.

Meeting Probabilities: (Source: CME Fed Watch Tool)

Result of Grayscale vs. SEC hearing

So far, GBTC is up roughly 9% today due to the current hearing, Grayscale vs. SEC.
The discount to NAV is roughly 40%, which assumes Grayscale’s chances of a spot ETF have increased.
The gap was as narrow as -35%.
GBTC would have a pathway to convert to NAV.
BTC remains roughly flat for the day at $22,300

Analyst

James Van Straten

Former Lead Analyst at CryptoSlate

James fervently appreciates data, technology, and trend-spotting. As a tech and liberty maximalist, he hails Bitcoin as the 21st century’s paramount invention.

Disclaimer: Our writers’ opinions are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of CryptoSlate. None of the information you read on CryptoSlate should be taken as investment advice, nor does CryptoSlate endorse any project that may be mentioned or linked to in this article. Buying and trading cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk activity. Please do your own due diligence before taking any action related to content within this article. Finally, CryptoSlate takes no responsibility should you lose money trading cryptocurrencies.