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Elon Musk’s Tesla missed out on $3 billion by selling Bitcoin at $31k

While Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 today, increased the value of Tesla’s remaining crypto holdings to over $1 billion, Tesla initially invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in early 2021 at an average price of $38,000 per coin. This purchase amounted to approximately 39,474 BTC.

In July 2022, Tesla sold 75% of its Bitcoin holdings, reducing its total to about 9,868 BTC. With Bitcoin now at $102,000, Tesla’s remaining holdings are valued at approximately $1 billion. Had the company retained its entire initial investment, the value would have exceeded $4 billion.

Here’s an estimate of Tesla’s Bitcoin holdings from 2021:

Year Bitcoin Holdings (BTC) Bitcoin Price ($) Total value ($)
2021 (Initial Purchase) 39,474 38,000 1,500,000,000
2024 (Current Holdings) 9,868 102,000 1,006,536,000
2024 (If No Sale) 39,474 102,000 4,026,348,000

Bitcoin’s bull run took a considerable hit when Elon Musk announced on May 12, 2021, that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin as payment due to environmental concerns. The price then fell 17% in a single day from $56,000 to $49,400. Over the following weeks, it fell as low as $28,600 before making a new all-time high in November.

By July 2022, Bitcoin was priced at around $18,900, and the news Tesla sold was released, revealing it had only a quarter of its Bitcoin left. Tesla made $936 million from the sale, which indicates that it sold for less than its purchase price of $38,000. With around 29,605 BTC sold, that equates to a selling price of approximately $31,615.

If Tesla continued accepting Bitcoin and we assign an arbitrary 1% of its revenue as paid in Bitcoin, it could have acquired around 81,388 BTC, now worth around $8.3 billion. However, given the adoption rate over the past three years, it’s arguably unlikely that 1% would have been paid in Bitcoin.

However, Tesla’s antics greatly impacted the Bitcoin narrative at the time. Imagine a world where Elon Musk continued to embrace Bitcoin throughout 2021 – 2023 and even championed its use as a payment method. Tesla could have run advertising campaigns internationally with promotions focused on Bitcoin purchases. Is it as difficult to imagine 1% of revenue in that world? Perhaps…

Year Automotive Revenue ($B) 1% Revenue ($M) Bitcoin Purchase (BTC)
2021 44.06 440.6 11,594.74
2022 71.46 714.6 28,584.00
2023 82.42 824.2 41,210.00

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